https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/through-looking-glass-granular-evidence-strengthen-economic-resilience-physical-climate-risk Figure 1Average maximum temperature anomaly(Continental Spain, 2000-2022)Source: Authors’ calculations based on AgERA5. Anomaly in maximum average annual temperature across regions compared to the 1979-1999 mean of maximum average annual temperatures.The macroeconomic impacts of floods, windstorms...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/europe-navigating-new-world-what-watch-2026 Euro area outlook: stability in a shifting landscapeDespite a challenging international environment marked by geopolitical tensions, the euro area has managed to maintain positive momentum. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is forecast at 1.3% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.5% in 2027. While these...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/euronomics-shifting-geoeconomic-landscape-calls-action Trade – a brave new worldThe recent overhaul of US trade policy has rapidly transformed the global trade order. As the largest trade bloc worldwide, Europe is directly affected. The US move towards a more mercantilist and transactional approach, away from multilateral rules, means continuous risks...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/euros-moment Fault lines are emerging in America’s global appealThe narrative of US exceptionalism, anchored in macroeconomic outperformance and the dollar’s reserve currency status, has historically driven substantial global investments in US assets, including from Europe. But this year, US policy uncertainty...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/impact-investing-esm-tangible-effect-esg-labelled-bonds Understanding ESG use-of-proceeds bonds: beyond the label, why subcategory themes matterESG use-of-proceeds bonds, which is the technical term for sustainable bonds or ESG bonds, are debt instruments whose funds raised are earmarked for specific projects with clear sustainability objectives. These...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/post-trade-settlement-fragmentation-and-case-unified-ledger What is causing the fragmentation in securities settlement? The fragmented nature of securities settlement is one of the hurdles that stand in the way of closer integration of European financial markets.[1] As such, it is a common theme in policy discussions surrounding savings and investments union...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/evaluation-international-institutions-cornerstone-efficient-credible-and-adaptive-operations Adaptability is key in a rapidly evolving worldEvaluations are crucial in public institutions where assessing “the bottom line” requires not only looking at profitability but also analysing what results are achieved and how they could be improved. For the ESM and most public sector actors with...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/preparing-systemic-risks-age-generative-artificial-intelligence Figure 1: Adoption of technology in finance: a historical timeline Source: ESMWatch out for systemic risksAI in the form of machine learning[1] had some impact within the world of finance over the last decades. However, its adoption was often limited to specific use cases, as models were typically...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/navigating-quantitative-tightening-funding-europes-future-without-rekindling-sovereign-bank Europe faces a defining moment amid mounting pressuresRecent high-level reports[1] have highlighted the challenges of shifting demographics and geopolitical landscapes that Europe must navigate while also financing the digitisation and green transition. Beyond this, the European Commission estimates...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/building-resilience-through-policy-role-social-safety-nets Inequality in times of crisisAs a crisis resolution mechanism, the ESM plays a crucial role when markets question the financial stability of the euro area or its members. During crises, financial markets can doubt government policies and their capacity to repay debts by pressing the governments to...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/peers-progress-how-aiib-and-esm-are-growing-stronger-together Distinct mandates but shared strong foundationsThough the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) differ in mandate, geographic focus, and shareholder composition, both are relatively young institutions that have quickly earned credibility in the global...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/how-non-euro-countries-have-embraced-issuance-euro-denominated-bonds Outstanding bonds issued by sovereigns globally amounted to above €75 trillion at the end of 2024, with almost 37% denominated in USD and 14% in euro. Issuance in euro has shown remarkable progress since the launch of the common currency in 1999. Among the €10.5 trillion sovereign bonds denominated...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/euronomics-charting-new-course-europes-response-global-disruptions Today’s challenges pave the way for tomorrow’s opportunitiesGlobal political uncertainty and a shift from multilateralism to transactional power dynamics are now pervasive features in international relations. Policy disruptions are reframing international relations into a competitive game...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/when-every-word-matters-importance-crisis-communication The power of wordsThe famous ‘whatever it takes’ speech by former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi[2] is a testament to how impactful crisis communication can be. Words are the first direct measure that citizens and financial markets react to in crises management. They are an essential...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/enhancing-europes-resilience-against-rising-geopolitical-risks Developing a common understanding around geopolitical risks[1]The significance of geopolitical risks has resurged in recent years, notably through the impact of armed conflicts (Figure 1). While conflicts worldwide are a growing source of concern, Europe is now also confronted with a war at its...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/unlocking-capital-markets-everyone-union-common-good Moving from capital markets union to a savings and investments unionEurope is at a crossroads where substantial investments for the foreseeable future are required. Three high-level reports have recently taken stock of Europe’s challenges.[2] While their specific recommendations differ, they concur...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/pricing-resilience-european-safe-assets European governments adopted economic support packages totalling €1.29 trillion when the Covid-19 pandemic struck in early 2020, triggering a quantum leap in the issuance of European bonds. The first package, worth an estimated €540 billion, involved the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/predicting-trouble-new-analytical-tool-monitor-bank-asset-quality From peaks to troughs: significant NPL reductions, but new risks emergingNon-performing loans have several negative effects on banks’ balance sheet. Banks consider a loan as “non-performing” when a borrower fails to honour the scheduled payments of principal or interest for a specified period. In...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/hidden-web-how-loss-absorbing-bonds-connect-banks-and-investment-funds Well-established MREL bond market attracts investors, but risks are presentLoss-absorbing bonds are attractive to investors, especially during periods of low interest rates, given their higher returns compared to other bank debt (Figure 1). This stems from their inherently higher riskiness because...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/what-look-out-2025 1) A new world order with new prioritiesAfter the European elections in June, the newly appointed European Commission has set priorities that look quite different from those of the previous one. While the Covid response and the Green Deal were the main priorities for 2019–2024, the European Union...