"Cross-Country Spillovers of Fiscal Consolidations in the Euro Area"
This seminar revisits the issue of cross-country spillovers from fiscal consolidations using an innovative empirical methodology. We find evidence in support of fiscal spillovers in 10 euro area countries. Fiscal consolidation in one country not only reduces domestic output (direct effect), but also the output of other member countries (indirect/spillover effect). Fiscal spillovers are larger for: (i) more closely located and economically integrated countries, and (ii) fiscal shocks originating from relatively larger countries. On average, 1 percent of GDP fiscal consolidation in 10 euro area countries reduces the combined output by 0.6 percent on impact, out of which half is driven by indirect effects from fiscal spillovers. The impact peters out and becomes insignificant over the medium-term. It is largely driven by tax measures, which have a relatively stronger effect on output compared to expenditure measures. The results are robust to alternative measures of bilateral links across countries.
Tigran Poghosyan - Tigran Poghosyan is a Senior Economist at the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) European Department (Nordic Unit), where he covers Denmark and Finland. He also covered the Euro Area, Ireland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Jordan, and Yemen in his previous assignments at the IMF, was a principal contributor to various issues of the IMF Fiscal Monitor over 2012 - 2016, and served as an assistant to FAD director. Prior to the IMF, Tigran Poghosyan worked at the Central Bank of Armenia and was a visiting researcher at the Deutsche Bundesbank. His work on banking, international finance, asset pricing, and public finance has featured in IMF research and policy publications, books, and peer-reviewed journals, including Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Journal of Banking and Finance, Economics of Transition, and Empirical Economics. He holds two PhDs in Economics from CERGE-EI and the University of Groningen.
This is an ESM research internal seminar. If you would like to attend, please write an email to ESMresearch@esm.europa.eu