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The Pricing of G7 Sovereign Bond Spreads - the Times, They Are A-Changin

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The Pricing of G7
Sovereign Bond Spreads

AuthorAntonello D’Agostino | Senior Economist in the Economics and Policy Strategy department
with Michael Ehrmann


Against the background of the current debate about fiscal sustainability in several advanced economies, this paper estimates determinants of G7 sovereign bond spreads, using high‐frequency proxies for market expectations about macroeconomic fundamentals and allowing for time‐varying parameters. The paper finds substantial asymmetry in the importance of country fundamentals and considerable time variations in the pricing of risks. There has been a reduced pricing of several risk factors in the years preceding the financial crisis, and either an overpricing of risk or the pricing of a re‐denomination risk of euro area bonds during the European sovereign debt crisis.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this discussion paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the ESM or ESM policy. No responsibility or liability is accepted by the ESM in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information, including any data sets, presented in this paper.

Published online: March 2013

Source: European Central Bank working paper | No 1520

Copyright © 2013, European Central Bank