https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/spending-composition-and-fiscal-consolidation-enhancing-resilience-face-economic Title: Spending composition and fiscal consolidation: Enhancing resilience in the face of economic shocksSummary: This paper examines how the composition of public spending, particularly the share of rigid expenditure such as pensions and public wages, affects the effectiveness and outcomes of...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/7th-annual-ec-eib-esm-capital-markets-seminar-1-2-october-2025-europe-crossroads Highlights of the eventOn 1 and 2 October, the European Commission (EC), the European Investment Bank (EIB), and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) co-hosted the seventh annual Capital Markets Seminar.Taking place in Luxembourg and streamed online for registered participants, the event attracted...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/2024-carbon-footprint-report As an international financial institution with a public mandate, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) remains dedicated to integrating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) best practices into its operations.This 2024 edition marks the ESM’s seventh annual carbon footprint report...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/esg-summary-report-2024 Message from the Managing DirectorI am pleased to present this third edition of the ESM summary report on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) activities.Over the past year, the landscape of ESG investing has experienced increased scrutiny and changing priorities. While ESG considerations...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/regime-based-portfolio-optimisation-hidden-markov-model-approach-fixed-income Title: Regime-based portfolio optimisation: A Hidden Markov Model approach for fixed income portfoliosSummary: This paper introduces a regime-based approach for fixed income portfolio optimisation that identifies distinct market volatility regimes during portfolio construction to improve risk...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/eu-savings-and-investments-union-bringing-capital-markets-people-and-firms-4-5-june The ESM and the Florence School of Banking and Finance organised a conference dedicated to the EU Savings and Investments Union (SIU). It gathered senior researchers and high-level representatives from the public and private sector to discuss the benefits of capital market integration for the EU...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/unilateral-issuance-framework-european-stability-mechanism-and-european-commission Title: The Unilateral Issuance Framework for the European Stability Mechanism and the European CommissionSummary: This paper focuses on a specific regime recently enacted under Luxembourg law for the ESM and European Commission, which represents a particular case in the general framework applicable...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/capital-markets-union-redux-towards-deeper-and-more-accessible-savings-and-investments Title: Capital markets union redux: towards a deeper and more accessible savings and investments union Authors: Loukas Kaskarelis, Arndt-Gerrit Kund, Mathias Skrutkowski, Juan Solé (all ESM)Abstract: Europe faces massive investment needs: it must regain competitiveness, provide stability to its...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/evaluation-report-analytical-capability-esm ForewordFollowing two large evaluation exercises conducted in 2016–2017 and 2019–2020 led by High-Level Independent Evaluators on European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)- and European Stability Mechanism (ESM)-supported financial assistance programmes, the ESM Evaluation function was formally...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/crisis-communication-literature-review-key-takeaways Title: Crisis communication literature review with key takeawaysSummary: This paper is a review of the available literature on crisis communication that is of relevance to the ESM and to public institutions at large. The aim of the project was to produce key principles of crisis communication by...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/handbook-crisis-communication-public-institutions Title: Handbook on crisis communication for public institutionsSummary: This handbook on crisis communication is primarily for public institutions, such as governments or international organisations. The aim of the project was to produce key principles of crisis communication by connecting research...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/concessional-credit-lines-sovereigns-financial-distress Title: Concessional credit lines for sovereigns in financial distressSummary: This paper quantitatively assesses the macroeconomic effects of concessional credit lines for sovereigns in financial distress and shows how accessing credit lines could alleviate sovereign risk and contribute to...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/asset-quality-risk Title: Asset-Quality-at-RiskSummary: The paper introduces a novel approach to predicting future asset quality deterioration in euro area banks: "asset-quality-at-risk" Authors: Alessandra Donini, Giulia Fusi, Mattia Picarelli (all ESM)Abstract: Non-performing loans (NPLs) have been at the core of...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/survey-based-measure-asymmetric-macroeconomic-risk-euro-area Title: A survey-based measure of asymmetric macroeconomic risk in the euro areaSummary: This paper derives a measure of perceived economic risks in the euro area from a large set of survey-based indicators and demonstrates its relevance for forecasting and business cycle dynamics. Authors: Sara Boni...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/distributional-implications-euro-area-crisis-evidence-macroeconomic-adjustment-greece Title: The distributional implications of the euro area crisis: Evidence from macroeconomic adjustment in Greece and PortugalSummary: The paper explores the distributional effects of economic crises and the resulting economic adjustments on household income in Greece and Portugal. Authors: Misina...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/pri-public-transparency-report-2024-esm PRI reporting is the largest global reporting project on responsible investment. It was developed with investors, for investors. PRI signatories are required to report publicly on their responsible investment activities each year. In turn, they receive a number of outputs, including a public and...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/broadening-scope-risk-sharing-through-european-backstop-natural-catastrophes Title: Broadening the scope of risk sharing through a European backstop for natural catastrophesAuthors: Martin Hahn (International Association of Insurance Supervisors), Bernhard Mayr (ESM)Abstract: An increased frequency and intensity of climate-related natural catastrophes has created significant...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/option-implied-bond-spread-risk Title: Option-implied bond spread riskSummary: This paper uses bond-option data to gauge market uncertainty and the magnitude of potential yield and spread moves in case of shocks to sovereign debt markets. Authors: Gergely Hudecz, Edmund Moshammer, and Marco Onofri (all ESM)Abstract: Government...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/saving-stability-greeces-recovery-and-resilience-plan-and-its-impact-external-position Title: Saving for stability: Greece’s Recovery and Resilience Plan and its impact on the external positionSummary: This paper presents a small open-economy general equilibrium model to track the dynamic effects of the RRP/RRF on savings, investment, and external balances in Greece. Authors: Zamid...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/financial-imbalances-and-macroeconomic-tail-risks-structural-regime-switching Title: Financial imbalances and macroeconomic tail risks: A structural regime-switching investigationSummary: This paper examines how excessive credit growth and asset price overvaluation increase the likelihood of financial crises and deepen associated economic downturns, and assesses the...