https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/lessons-financial-assistance-greece-%E2%80%93-technical-appendix This technical appendix was compiled to provide further background to the second ESM evaluation focusing on financial assistance to Greece. Its purpose is to enhance transparency on the technical aspects of the conduct of the evaluation exercise, and the various strands of analysis. The evaluation...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/lessons-financial-assistance-greece The independent evaluation report Lessons from Financial Assistance to Greece assesses the financial assistance to Greece in terms of relevance, effectiveness, sustainability, efficiency and cooperation. It primarily focuses on the ESM programme from 2015 to 2018, while taking into account its links...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/esm-annual-report-2019 Go to the online: ESM Annual Report 2019 The annual report contains a description of the ESM's policies, activities, financial statements and economic developments in 2019. Additionally, it contains an external auditor's report and a report of the Board of Auditors.

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/rfas%E2%80%99-financial-structures-and-lending-capacities-statutory-accounting-and-credit Download PDF: Working Paper 44 This paper presents the diverse financial structures of Regional Financing Arrangements (RFAs) and analyses the impact of financial structures on RFAs’ lending capacity Authors: Gong Cheng (ESM), Rudolf Alvise Lennkh (Scope Ratings) Abstract: This paper documents the...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/volatility-indices-and-implied-uncertainty-measures-european-government-bond-futures Download PDF: Working Paper 43 This paper shows how to use options to measure forward-looking market uncertainty in European government bond futures. Authors: Jaroslav Baran (ESM) and Jan Voříšek (independent researcher) Abstract: Implied volatility and other forward-looking measures of option...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/finding-complementarities-imf-and-rfa-toolkits Download PDF: Discussion Paper 8 Authors: Gong Cheng, Dominika Miernik and Teuta Turani (all European Stability Mechanism)* Abstract: This work takes stock, using a comparative approach, of the existing IMF and RFA toolboxes, and the related lending policies. The paper first aims to serve as a...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/quantifying-risks-sovereign-market-access-methods-and-challenges Download PDF: Working Paper 42 This paper uses a rich dataset of financial and macroeconomic variables for euro area economies, and a range of econometric techniques, to discuss challenges in predicting episodes of market access tensions by sovereign borrowers. Authors: Diana Žigraiová (ESM, Charles...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/liquidity-and-tail-risk-interdependencies-euro-area-sovereign-bond-market Download PDF: Working Paper 41 This paper shows that liquidity linkages in European sovereign bond markets can amplify fundamental economic shocks. Authors: Daragh Clancy (ESM), Peter G. Dunne (Central Bank of Ireland), Pasquale Filiani (Central Bank of Ireland) This paper was awarded the prize for...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/learning-trees-mixed-approach-building-early-warning-systems-systemic-banking-crises Download PDF: Working Paper 40 This paper develops an early warning model of systemic banking crises that combines regression tree technology with a statistical algorithm to improve its accuracy and overcome some drawbacks of more standard models. Author: Carmine Gabriele (ESM) Abstract: Banking...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/completing-banking-union-support-economic-and-monetary-union Download PDF: Discussion Paper 7 Authors: Paolo Fioretti Olga Francova Mike Hesketh † Nicoletta Mascher Rolf Strauch Flore Vancompernolle (all European Stability Mechanism) Abstract: This discussion paper depicts recent developments in the euro area banking system and sheds light on institutional...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/completing-npl-reduction-europe Download PDF: Discussion Paper 6 Authors: Loukas Kaskarelis (European Stability Mechanism) Dóra Siklós (European Stability Mechanism) Abstract: This discussion paper analyses the relevance of the non-performing loan (NPL) problem for European banks. We provide an overview of the measures implemented...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/are-governments-matching-citizens%E2%80%99-demand-better-lives-new-approach-comparing Download PDF: Working Paper 39 This paper proposes two composite indices of well-being to examine the gap between a government’s welfare outcome and its citizens’ desired well-being and how this “welfare gap” may influence utility. Author: Luisa Corrado (University of Rome Tor Vergata) and Giuseppe...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/us-corporate-tax-rate-cuts-spillovers-irish-economy Download PDF: Working Paper 38 This paper shows that past US corporate income tax rate cuts created small but persistent positive spillovers to the Irish economy. Author: Daragh Clancy (ESM) Abstract: We examine spillovers to the Irish economy from US corporate income tax rate cuts and find they...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/esm-annual-report-2018 Go to the online: ESM Annual Report 2018 The annual report contains a description of the ESM's policies, activities, financial statements and economic developments in 2018. Additionally, it contains an external auditor's report and a report of the Board of Auditors.

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/costs-sovereign-defaults-restructuring-strategies-bank-distress-and-capital-inflow Download PDF: Working Paper 37 This paper shows how the output costs of sovereign defaults are intimately linked to the credit crunch and capital flight that such processes tend to generate. Authors: Tamon Asonuma (IMF), Marcos Chamon (IMF), Aitor Erce (ESM), Akira Sasahara (University of Idaho)...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/does-public-debt-produce-crowding-out-effect-public-investment-eu Download PDF: Working Paper 36 This paper shows the detrimental effect of government debt on public investment in the EU Authors: Mattia Osvaldo Picarelli (European Stability Mechanism), Willem Vanlaer (Hasselt University), Wim Marneffe (Hasselt University) Abstract: This paper exploits a panel...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/loss-aversion-economic-sentiments-and-international-consumption-smoothing Download PDF: Working Paper 35 This paper demonstrates that loss-averse behaviour weakens international consumption smoothing Authors: Daragh Clancy and Lorenzo Ricci (European Stability Mechanism) Abstract: We examine an unexplored connection between loss aversion and international consumption...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/benevolence-time-sound-macroeconomic-environment-and-governance-quality-duration-0 Download PDF: Working Paper 34 This paper uses data on sovereign ratings for developed and emerging countries to understand the dynamics of investment-grade and speculative-grade phases. Authors: Luca Agnello (University of Palermo), Vitor Castro (Loughborough University) and Ricardo Sousa (European...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/benefits-reducing-hold-out-risk-evidence-euro-cac-experiment-2013-2018 Download PDF: Working Paper 33 This paper studies the pricing implications of Collective Action Clauses in euro area sovereign bonds and finds that the yield effects are heterogeneous across economies and over time. Authors: Mattia Osvaldo Picarelli, Aitor Erce, Xu Jiang (all ESM) Abstract: The...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/case-european-rainy-day-fund Download PDF: Discussion Paper 5 This paper draws on the US experience with state rainy day funds (RDFs) and develops a proposal to build a fiscal stabilisation function for the euro area in the format of a common non-mutualised European RDF. Authors: Andreja Lenarčič (European Stability Mechanism)...