https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/reform-european-stability-mechanism Download PDF: Discussion Paper 14 Authors: Jasper Aerts and Pedro Bizarro Abstract: This article seeks to explain the main aspects of the reform of the European Stability Mechanism, as agreed in principle by the leaders of the euro area member states. The article focuses particularly on the ESM’s...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/how-puzzling-forward-premium-puzzle-meta-analysis Download PDF: Working Paper 46 The study uses meta-analysis to investigate why different papers report conflicting evidence on the forward premium puzzle and finds that the puzzle is much less prevalent than commonly thought. Authors: Diana Zigraiova (ESM), Tomas Havranek and Jiri Novak (Charles...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/regional-disparities-europe-should-we-be-concerned Download PDF: Discussion Paper 13 Authors: Gergely Hudecz, Edmund Moshammer, and Thomas Wieser Abstract: The economic impact of the coronavirus is likely to differ from region to region, depending on their sectoral specialisation, and may exacerbate regional disparities. This paper provides an...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/2012-private-sector-involvement-greece Download PDF: Discussion Paper 11 Author: Gong Cheng (Bank for International Settlements) Abstract: In March 2012, the euro area agreed a private sector involvement (PSI) to alleviate Greece’s debt burden by restructuring sovereign bonds held by private investors. This background paper provides...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/oecd-contribution-evaluation-esm-financial-assistance-programme-greece Download PDF: Discussion Paper 12 Authors: Manuel Bétin, Tim Bulman, Thomas Chalaux, Boris Cournède, Alain de Serres, Claude Giorno and Yvan Guillemette (all OECD) Abstract: This background study assesses the impact of budgetary and market reforms from the start of the Greek financial assistance...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/crisis-greece-missteps-and-miscalculations Download PDF: Discussion Paper 9 Author: Benny Andersen Abstract: This paper analyses the origins of the Greek economic and financial crisis, covering 1981 to 2012. The work depicts how unsustainable imbalances built up over a prolonged period, often fueled by ample low-cost financing sources. It...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/restoring-growth-and-financial-stability-how-greek-banks-contributed Download PDF: Discussion Paper 10 Author: Srichander Ramaswamy Abstract: The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) is evaluating the Greek financial assistance programmes to learn lessons that could enhance its ability to address possible future crises. This discussion paper provides input for this...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/sovereign-bond-market-spillovers-crisis-time-developments-greece Download PDF: Working Paper 45 This paper demonstrates that events in Greece worsened euro area countries' tail risks during the sovereign debt crisis. Authors: Daragh Clancy, Carmine Gabriele and Diana Zigraiova (all ESM) Abstract: The systemic importance of a country is a crucial component in the...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/lessons-financial-assistance-greece-%E2%80%93-technical-appendix This technical appendix was compiled to provide further background to the second ESM evaluation focusing on financial assistance to Greece. Its purpose is to enhance transparency on the technical aspects of the conduct of the evaluation exercise, and the various strands of analysis. The evaluation...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/lessons-financial-assistance-greece The independent evaluation report Lessons from Financial Assistance to Greece assesses the financial assistance to Greece in terms of relevance, effectiveness, sustainability, efficiency and cooperation. It primarily focuses on the ESM programme from 2015 to 2018, while taking into account its links...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/esm-annual-report-2019 Go to the online: ESM Annual Report 2019 The annual report contains a description of the ESM's policies, activities, financial statements and economic developments in 2019. Additionally, it contains an external auditor's report and a report of the Board of Auditors.

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/rfas%E2%80%99-financial-structures-and-lending-capacities-statutory-accounting-and-credit Download PDF: Working Paper 44 This paper presents the diverse financial structures of Regional Financing Arrangements (RFAs) and analyses the impact of financial structures on RFAs’ lending capacity Authors: Gong Cheng (ESM), Rudolf Alvise Lennkh (Scope Ratings) Abstract: This paper documents the...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/volatility-indices-and-implied-uncertainty-measures-european-government-bond-futures Download PDF: Working Paper 43 This paper shows how to use options to measure forward-looking market uncertainty in European government bond futures. Authors: Jaroslav Baran (ESM) and Jan Voříšek (independent researcher) Abstract: Implied volatility and other forward-looking measures of option...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/finding-complementarities-imf-and-rfa-toolkits Download PDF: Discussion Paper 8 Authors: Gong Cheng, Dominika Miernik and Teuta Turani (all European Stability Mechanism)* Abstract: This work takes stock, using a comparative approach, of the existing IMF and RFA toolboxes, and the related lending policies. The paper first aims to serve as a...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/quantifying-risks-sovereign-market-access-methods-and-challenges Download PDF: Working Paper 42 This paper uses a rich dataset of financial and macroeconomic variables for euro area economies, and a range of econometric techniques, to discuss challenges in predicting episodes of market access tensions by sovereign borrowers. Authors: Diana Žigraiová (ESM, Charles...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/liquidity-and-tail-risk-interdependencies-euro-area-sovereign-bond-market Download PDF: Working Paper 41 This paper shows that liquidity linkages in European sovereign bond markets can amplify fundamental economic shocks. Authors: Daragh Clancy (ESM), Peter G. Dunne (Central Bank of Ireland), Pasquale Filiani (Central Bank of Ireland) This paper was awarded the prize for...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/learning-trees-mixed-approach-building-early-warning-systems-systemic-banking-crises Download PDF: Working Paper 40 This paper develops an early warning model of systemic banking crises that combines regression tree technology with a statistical algorithm to improve its accuracy and overcome some drawbacks of more standard models. Author: Carmine Gabriele (ESM) Abstract: Banking...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/completing-banking-union-support-economic-and-monetary-union Download PDF: Discussion Paper 7 Authors: Paolo Fioretti Olga Francova Mike Hesketh † Nicoletta Mascher Rolf Strauch Flore Vancompernolle (all European Stability Mechanism) Abstract: This discussion paper depicts recent developments in the euro area banking system and sheds light on institutional...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/completing-npl-reduction-europe Download PDF: Discussion Paper 6 Authors: Loukas Kaskarelis (European Stability Mechanism) Dóra Siklós (European Stability Mechanism) Abstract: This discussion paper analyses the relevance of the non-performing loan (NPL) problem for European banks. We provide an overview of the measures implemented...

https://www.esm.europa.eu/publications/are-governments-matching-citizens%E2%80%99-demand-better-lives-new-approach-comparing Download PDF: Working Paper 39 This paper proposes two composite indices of well-being to examine the gap between a government’s welfare outcome and its citizens’ desired well-being and how this “welfare gap” may influence utility. Author: Luisa Corrado (University of Rome Tor Vergata) and Giuseppe...