Linking Bank Crises and Sovereign Defaults: Evidence from Emerging Markets

Download PDF: Working Paper 22

This paper studies the mechanisms through which bank and sovereign distress feed into each other, using a large sample of emerging market economies over three decades
 

Authors: Irina Balteanu (Bank of Spain) and Aitor Erce (European Stability Mechanism)
 

Abstract:

We analyze the mechanisms through which bank and sovereign distress feed into each other, using a large sample of emerging market economies over three decades. After defining “twin crises” as events where bank crises and sovereign defaults combine, and further distinguishing between those bank crises that end up in sovereign defaults and vice-versa, we study what differentiates “single” and “twin” events. Using an event analysis methodology, we document systematic differences between “single” and “twin” crises across various dimensions. We show that many of the regularities often associated with either “bank” or “debt” crises are present in twin events only. We further show that “twin” crises themselves are heterogeneous events: the proper time sequence of crises that compose “twin” episodes is important for understanding these events. Guided by these facts, we use discrete-variable econometric techniques to assess the main channels of distress transmission between crises. We find that balance sheet interconnections, credit dynamics, financial openness and economic growth are important drivers of twin crises. Our results inform the flourishing theoretical literature on the mechanisms surrounding feedback loops of sovereign and bank stress.

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the ESM. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the ESM or ESM policy. No responsibility or liability is accepted by the ESM in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information, including any data sets, presented in this Working Paper.

JEL codes: E44, F34, G01, H63

Source: European Stability Mechanism | Working Paper Series | Volume 2017 | No 22 | February 2017 | 41 Pages
 

Copyright © European Stability Mechanism, 2017 | All rights reserved. Any reproduction, publication and reprint in the form of a different publication, whether printed or produced electronically, in whole or in part, is permitted only with the explicit written authorisation of the European Stability Mechanism.