Noëmie Lisack (Bank of England) speaks at the ESM

"Demographic Trends and the Real Interest Rate"

From the author:

We quantify the impact of past and future global demographic change on real interest rates, house prices and household debt in an overlapping generations model. Falling birth and death rates can explain a large part of the fall in world real interest rates and the rise in house prices and household debt since the 1980s. These trends will persist as the share of the population in the high-wealth 50+ age bracket continues to rise. As the US ages relatively slowly, its net foreign liability position will grow. The availability of housing and debt as alternative stores of value attenuates these trends. The increasing monopolisation of the economy has ambiguous effects. The integration of emerging and developing countries into world capital markets could have large effects.

Noëmie Lisack -- Noëmie Lisack has been working at the International Directorate of the Bank of England as a Research Economist since September 2016. She obtained her PhD in Economics from the European University Institute (Florence, Italy) in November 2016. Her research mainly focuses on macroeconomics, with an emphasis on firm behaviour and financial intermediation. She also has papers in international macroeconomics, mostly related to foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange intervention. Finally, she has a strong interest in the economics of China and in computational techniques.

This is an ESM research internal seminar. If you would like to attend, please write an email to ESMresearch@esm.europa.eu