Markus Rodlauer and Geoff Gottlieb (IMF) speak at the EIB

Can China Pilot a Soft Landing?

2017 Article IV Consultation - Analysis, Outlook, and Policy Advice

Summary of Presentation
In recent years, China has sustained high growth, resulting in impressive improvements in domestic living standards and ongoing support to the global economy. However, this economic strength has partly relied on unsustainable policies, particularly credit growth. The authorities have shown increasing awareness of these vulnerabilities and the accompanying need to transition to a more sustainable economic model. However, they are also keenly focused on ensuring that the short-term social costs of this transition remain manageable. Building on the recently published Article IV review, this presentation will detail the IMF’s recommendations for completing China’s transition to a new growth model. The discussion will focus on reducing savings rates, increasing financial sector stability, reforming the role of SOEs, and building the needed fiscal and monetary policy frameworks to manage the modern Chinese economy.
       
Dr. Markus Rodlauer is Deputy Director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department (APD). Among other leadership responsibilities, he oversees the Fund’s China team, which has conducted the annual Article IV Consultations with the People’s Republic of China in recent years. His previous jobs at the Fund included Deputy Director of Human Resources, Deputy Director in the Western Hemisphere Department, Mission Chief for a number of countries in Asia, Europe, South America, and IMF Resident Representative to Poland and the Philippines. Dr. Rodlauer worked with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Austria before joining the IMF. His academic training includes degrees in law, economics, and international relations.

Geoff Gottlieb is Senior Economist on the IMF’s China team and Mission Chief for Macao SAR. Previously, Mr. Gottlieb was a member of the IMF’s Greece team where he was responsible for fiscal and debt issues during the 2012-2014 program. Prior to coming to the IMF, Mr. Gottlieb’s career spanned public and private sector institutions including the U.S. Treasury, Goldman Sachs, Fortress Investment Group and the Earth Institute at Columbia University.  He attended Brown University and received an MSc in Economics at the University College Dublin.

This is an ESM research internal seminar. If you would like to attend, please write an email to ESMresearch@esm.europa.eu (link sends e-mail)